نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Abstract
In this article, the author seeks to find appropriate answers to several questions about the fate of Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi's caliphate and its affiliated human capital, as well as geopolitics, the nature and consequences of their anti-security activities in order to outline the geopolitical perspective of terrorist - takfiri activities in the Islamic world after the collapse of the structure and political geography of the caliphate. Based on this, the author has drawn the geopolitical model of the Islamic world in three areas of "axis of resistance", "neo-ottomanism" and "Wahhabi orientation in the Islamic world" by relying on the scenario writing method called "GBN" in future studies. Relying on dual uncertainties, four scenarios have been narrated, the first one is "returning to the original territory to revive the caliphate of Iraq and the Levant"; the second scenario is "emigration to an alternative territory for the formation of Khorasan province"; the third scenario is "returning to the cyber territory to establish a virtual caliphate" and the fourth scenario is "emigration to the mediating territory for the formation of the north African province". Finally, the anti-security consequences, sustainable strategies, and wild cards associated with the scenarios are introduced.
According to the researcher, in the current situation, the second and third scenarios have more operational capability at the same time. Since the most important utopia of the salafi, jihadi and takfiri currents; That is to say, the revival of the caliphate is in the geopolitics of Iraq and the Levant, if the time and environmental conditions are provided, this current will use all anti-security tools and facilities to return to its original territory in Syria (achieving the first scenario). Among the four scenarios, due to the distance of this current from the axis of resistance and the proximity to its trans-regional supporters, the most desirable scenario for the Islamic world and the axis of resistance is the fourth scenario; that is to say, is emigration to the mediating territory for the formation of the North African province.
کلیدواژهها [English]
11.کاظمی، حجت (1396)، «خیزشهای هویتی، دولتهای شکننده و بحران ژئوپلیتیکی خاورمیانه»، فصلنامۀ ژئوپلیتیک، سال سیزدهم، شمارۀ اول، فصل بهار (صص 146 ـ 172).
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