عوامل غافلگیری اطلاعاتی رژیم صهیونیستی در عملیات 7 اکتبر حماس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دکتری روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه گیلان

چکیده

  در 7 اکتبر 2023، زمانی که نیروهای سازمان حماس از نوار غزه به مناطقی از جنوب رژیم صهیونیستی حمله نموده و خسارات جانی و مالی قابل توجهی وارد کردند، رژیم صهیونی به لحاظ اطلاعاتی غافلگیر شد. این رژیم هیچ اخطار مشخص و فوری درباره این حمله نداشت. این یک غافلگیری برجسته برای جامعه اطلاعاتی و سیستم امنیتی بود. فقدان هشدار اطلاعاتی سؤال اساسی را در مورد توانایی جامعه اطلاعاتی رژیم صهیونیستی ایجاد کرد بدین‌صورت که علل و عوامل غافلگیری اطلاعاتی در عملیات 7 اکتبر مشتمل بر چه مواردی بودند. فرضیه پژوهش با تکیه بر روش توصیفی - تحلیلی بیان می‌کند که دستگاه اطلاعاتی رژیم صهیونیستی از تقویت حماس اطلاع داشت، اما این سوگیری شناختی وجود داشت که حماس اهداف خود را تغییر داده و قصد دارد به مثابه یک بازیگر عادی رفتار کند و در نتیجه حماس از اقدامات تهاجمی که به نوبه خود موجب تحریک رژیم صهیونیستی می‌شود، خودداری می‌کند. عوامل متعددی در سوگیری شناختی نقش داشتند که اصهیونیست‌ها در نهایت نتوانستند وضعیت حماس را درک کنند. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که تهدید حماس در قیاس با توانایی رژیم صهیونیستی کم ‌اهمیت جلوه داده می‌شد و در چنین شرایطی بود که خطای شناختی بر محاسبات و ارزیابی‌های منطقی چیره گشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors of Israel’s intelligence surprise in the October 7 operation of Hamas

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyed Hamed Hoseini
PhD in International Relations. University of Guilan
چکیده [English]

On October 7, 2023, when the forces of the Hamas organization from the Gaza Strip attacked areas of southern Israel and inflicted significant human and financial losses, the Zionist regime was surprised in terms of information. This regime had no clear and immediate warning about this attack. It was a major surprise for the intelligence community and the security system. The lack of intelligence warning raised fundamental questions about the capabilities of Israel’s intelligence community, as to what the causes and factors of intelligence surprise in the October 7 operation consisted of. The research hypothesis based on the analytical descriptive method states that the Israeli intelligence apparatus knew about the strengthening of Hamas, but there was this cognitive bias that Hamas has changed its goals and intends to behave as a normal actor, and as a result, Hamas refrains from aggressive actions, that in turn provoke Israel. Several factors played a role in the cognitive bias that ultimately the Zionists could not understand the situation of Hamas. The findings of the research show that the threat of Hamas was underestimated compared to Israel’s ability, and it was in such a situation that cognitive error prevailed over logical calculations and evaluations. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Israel
  • Hamas
  • intelligence community
  • surprise
  • cognitive bias

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فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی امنیتی
دوره 13، شماره 49 - شماره پیاپی 49
بهار 1403
خرداد 1403
صفحه 39-66

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