Futures studies of terrorism and the security of international system

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of International Relations, University of Isfahan

2 Associate Professor of International Relations, Department of Political Sciences, University of Isfahan

Abstract

Terrorism is a fixed attribute on the horizon of the future of humanity and technologicaladvancements, thought, tactics and terrorism’s weapons have led governmentsto make a vision in order to reduce the possible vulnerability factor andadopt an active and proactive position rather than passive and reactive positionon how to deal with terrorism. The purpose of this study is to study the terrorismand the security of the international system as a future problem, using the Delphimethod. For this purpose, participants in this article are 20 experts in the field ofterrorism and futures studies. Furthermore, Judgmental and snowball samplingmethod was used to select the experts and in the process of the Delphi implementationexperts reached consensus on 17 questions. The study results indicate thatthe continuation and escalation of terrorism in the next decade will be the mostlikely scenario and the stimulus of technological change, globalization, the worldpopulation rise and climate change are effective factors in the creation and spreadof terrorism. Threats from cyber and internet terrorism will increase in the nextdecade and terrorist groups will use unconventional weapons and suicide attacksthroughout the world to achieve their goals and terrorist groups in the future poseserious threats to military, economic, human, and environmental security. Theseresults indicate that three strategies; 1. integrated global approach to terrorism,2. preventative strategy in the form of confronting with terrorism and destroyingroots and thinking principles and beliefs of it, 3. the strategy of suppression andtechnical and operational confronting with manifestations of terrorism could beeffective against these threats.

Keywords

References

Baylis, J, & Smith, S. (2005), The Globalization of World Politics, An Introduction to International Relation (the Second edition Ed), Oxford University Press.
Bell, Wendell. (2003), Foundation of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge (Human Science for New Era), London: Transaction Publishers.
Laqueur, W. (2018), the Future of Terrorism: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Alt-Right, Publisher: Thomas Dunne Books.
Lia, B. (2005), Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions, Routledge.
Linstone, H.A. & Turoff, M., (1975), (digital version: 2002), "Introduction", the Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, Publisher: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co., Advanced Book Program.
Mannik, E. (2011), »Terrorism: Its Past, Present and Future Prospects«, Journal: KVÜÕA toimetised.

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